Jomal Johny. February 13, 2020
A cruise ship named the Diamond Princess is quarantined in the port of Yokohama, Japan since February 4 due to an onboard infection of coronavirus. The ship contains more than 3,700 people and 219 people are already affected the virus at the time of writing.
The current strategy of quarantining the ship very likely cause full fledged infection inside the ship and a larger coronavirus outbreak in Japan. Here is how.
We, Oxynger Technologies, are an upcoming intelligence augmentation company. Base of our research is research about truth. Here I am using our expertise on truth to find out the correctness of the current ship strategy.
The current ship strategy is to put the ship under quarantine. We have two objectives for quarantining the ship.
1. Safety of people inside the ship
2. Safety of people outside the ship
There are many possible forms of quarantines exist. Only true quarantine will protect people inside and outside of quarantine from the virus.
Rule for true quarantine is : complete quarantine for everybody all the time.
This rule consists 3 components: complete quarantine, everybody and time. It is easy to see why this rule represents true quarantine. Partial quarantine (quarantine which do not meet the full criteria of quarantine) or excluding a subgroup from quarantine or remove quarantine for a period of time, breaks quarantine and hence not true.
Lets check the current ship strategy meet the rule.
We are continuing to quarantine the ship even after reporting 219 cases of infection. Choosing the quarantine facility as the ship which is highly infected breaks the complete quarantine component of true quarantine rule. Meaning this is a partial quarantine and most probably cause spreading the infection.
An important thing about quarantine is, people serving the quarantine must not be the people supposed to be in the quarantine. The crew in the ship are also supposed to be in the quarantine. But they are continue to prepare food, deliver food in passenger cabins, maintain the ship etc. This breaks the everybody component of the rule and most probably cause spreading the infection.
Passengers in the quarantine allowed to goto the ship deck for a short period of time. Even though they are wearing masks and may keeping 6 feet distance from others, they actually sharing the surfaces exposed to possibly infected people. This breaks the time component of the rule and most probably cause spreading the infection.
Breaking the rule's any of the component may cause spreading the infection among quarantine. Here all 3 components are broken and chances of everybody onboard getting infection is highly probable.
Lets think about what will happen once everybody gets infected. Everybody means more than 3,700 people. Suddenly putting more than 3,700 coronavirus cases into Japan's health care system may cause problems. Safety protocols followed in the hospitals probably contain a small number of errors. Small number of errors in protocols may not be a major problem when the number of cases are small. But when the number of cases increases, like in this case, chances of spreading the infection increases rapidly. It may cause a larger outbreak in Japan. So it is Japan's best interest to minimize the number of infection as much as possible. But quarantining the ship is actually causing the opposite.
The current ship strategy defeats both objectives of ship quarantine and hence wrong.
The correct solution is quarantine everybody on the ship at a quarantine facility outside the ship where authority can strictly implement complete and correct safety protocols. It also important to disembark the onboard people under correct safety protocols. Otherwise the disembarking process itself may cause spreading the infection.
If we continue to maintain the ship in quarantine then the outcome of the ship quarantine won't be a natural calamity but a human creation. We don't have to experience the outcome of the ship in reality to learn "never quarantine a virus affected ship". Instead we can use our intelligence and act on it to avoid the bad outcome.Tweet